Kontakt 2016, 18(2):e103-e111 | DOI: 10.1016/j.kontakt.2016.05.004

The future development of elderly care home capacity in South BohemiaSocial Sciences in Health - Original article

Natálie Šídlová Kunstová^a, Luděk Šídlo^b,*

^a Jihočeská univerzita v Českých Budějovicích, Zdravotně sociální fakulta, České Budějovice, Česká republika

^b Univerzita Karlova v Praze, Přírodovědecká fakulta, katedra demografie a geodemografie, Praha, Česká republika

The article explores capacity in elderly care homes in the South Bohemian region. The aim is to map the current state and the potential future capacity up to 2030. The need to ensure there are sufficient elderly care homes is linked to expectations that life expectancy will continue to increase, and that the top-heavy age structure of the population will lead to an increase in the number and proportion of elderly people in the total population. Existing population forecasts indicate that the number of elderly people in South Bohemia will have increased by more than 40% by 2030. Elderly care home capacity is now full and - given the large numbers seeking placement - it is also insufficient. Despite this, the available information suggests there are no plans to increase capacity substantially in the near future. It is thus assumed that the problem regarding elderly institutional care will grow worse in the near future. According to the authors' calculations, if the proportion of elderly people in the population residing in care homes remains at the same level, it will be necessary, depending on the model used, to increase capacity by around 80% by 2030. If not, the number of elderly people per care home vacancy in South Bohemia will rise from the current 37 to 53 by 2030, which may cause considerable problems.

Keywords: Demographic ageing; Elderly care homes; South Bohemia; Forecast models

Received: November 4, 2015; Revised: February 15, 2016; Accepted: May 16, 2016; Published: June 27, 2016  Show citation